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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  March 4, 2015 6:00pm-7:01pm EST

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our expert. that's it for tonight's willis report. makin"making money" with charles payne is next. have a great night. we'll see you right back here tomorrow. ♪ charles: i'm charles payne, and you're watching "making money." well, the markets continued to march higher. but on that note, adp released their own jobs report this morning. immediately you noticed, not only how low the number was, but the trend of the lower number getting lower and lower. by the way, that's what a 30,000 revision for january. the result was the lowest since may of last year. from michael neil and ceo of united rental on this show. construction was strong. 30,000 jobs. you see this tiny sliver? that's manufacturing. heartbreaking. only 3,000 jops. the adp number speaks to a tepid number of jobs. let alone all the jobs lost in a great recession.
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there's all kinds of metrics. there will be highlights and all kind of proxies for the job reports. they ignore the dropout of the job market. main street knows one thing, there are significantly fewer jobs as a percentage of the population than there was just three decades ago. and that is the pulse of the country. let's go to nicole petallides with the pulse on the floor. >> charles, we're bringing you the pulse of the floor. we have scott redler. thanks for joining us, scott. the market hit the highs. pulling back. we got adp. good time to buy, buy on the dips? feeling a little tired? >> yesterday you saw it feel tired. the average broke on the s&p. it was cute. the day after the headlines of nasdaq 5,000, the market went to mix up the consensus the past few years. a pullback is fatigued. market is tired. i'm excited for this dip. >> you're excited for the dip, why? >> lightly after a 5%
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move in february or 7% move in the nasdaq, a lot of situations or opportunities start to thin out. it's a little bit of a pullback. people like traders like myself won't think we're chasing. we need to stay above s&p 60. i think the traders will buy. >> glad you joined us. we'll be watching for the jobs report on friday. i'm sure that will be key. you have a number? >> i think it comes around 230. anything above 250 might be too high. the market might not like it. charles: from the floor, they want a number that's not too hot. we'll find out. we have other own group of pros. matt, hillary, scottie, and hitha. all here. david nelson. management chief strategist. back with us. it's been too long. >> it has been long. charles: steve cortez and tjm founder. joins us from chicago. welcome to the show. all right, guys let's big into the first real,
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real deal. the jobs, or let's say, the lack of jobs bugging main street. we feel it. all the sentiment numbers say it. but why isn't the lack of jobs bugging wall street? is it to the traders point that wall street still wants mediocrity? they don't want great news, they like mediocrity even if main street is suffering? matt: yeah, if we've been growing 2.5%, that's exactly what wall street wants. it sucks for the rest of the country because we all know people have to work. people are trying to get work and aren't getting it. i see a silver lining. 20% of small businesses hire full time employees in the past month. people who want loans are getting loans. this recovery, it has to be led by small business if we turn this around. charles: the adp number, they created a lot more jobs than large businesses. the thing is, hitha, and you've been touching upon this, still when it comes to main street,
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the sort of euphoria resonating from the stock market, there's a complete disconnect. >> there's an absolute disconnect. people are hesitant to get back into the market. they were burned in the past. afraid to go in. you see numbers like this from adp, people aren't getting those jobs. they hesitate even more. your point on wall street, when they see these numbers, people aren't hiring as much. look at what happened with target. they announced they'll get rid of a thousand jobs. in the name of restructuring and making money for this company. charles: right. >> and wall street responded well with that. charles: steve, i want to bring you in here. to hitha's point, there's been this major biif you are indication of opinion with respect to main street and wall street. also, i think main street understands the economy better than wall street. really, they do. they understand the employment population ratio is abysmal. and they know this because they live it, steve. >> right. no approximat.
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they see it every day. there was a song called it's raining men. in terms of the job market, it is not raining men at all. males of work force age, we now have 15% of males of work force age are not working. that number the highest on record, by the way. worst since even the depression. that number was about 5% post world war ii. we tripled the number of working age men that have not been in the work force. that's a major problem. the gulf, the kaz am has never been wider. it's because of fed policy. (?) the stock market is addicted to easy money. it cares much more about slow growth than fast growth. because fast growth might remove some of the drug of fed policy. charles: although, david, last year, i think every single -- every single jobs report, either at the time it was reported or
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after revision, came in stronger than the estimates in the market had a pretty good year on, quote, unquote, jobs reports. >> the market always like a positive surprise. i think there's a metric we're not exploring here. we've been exploiting jobs for close to two decades now. as long as there's a job, someone is willing to do your job on the other side of the planet for less money than you are, your job is at risk. you have to become a plumber, you can't exploit your plumbing. charles: do you want residuals or royalties because he mentioned your song. >> i know he did. wall street is no longer looking at fundamentals in this. until interest rates go back up, they're not looking -- >> they are looking at the fundamentals. charles: hold on. you just opened up a can of worms. let me blow the whistle right now and open up the first page of payne's investment playbook. here's the thing. the market is struggling right now. you have a whole bunch of people on the sideline. obviously as we made
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this move, people's interest has been piqued. this plays into the hands of the conspiracy theorists who think that smart money has been used to ease out of this market. one thing, take a look at this chart. the notion that smart money like elvis leaving the building. look at that chart. many say it's a red flag. let's bring it to the real, real deal, hillary. >> sometimes i actually think that when people are buying lots of puts and betting against the market, it actually can be a bullish sentiment. charles: contrarcontrarian. even if it's so-called smart money. >> i'm the contrarian. you have so much money deciding to go on the short side and betting against the market, there's discord with the fed. i'm hearing char charter abouchatter howthey're crossingh other. charles: it seems to me that janet yellen has much tighter
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control of the fed than anyone else. >> she needs to control their mouths. charles: they can talk all they want. she's getting that bernanke/greenspan control over the fed. steve, you've been skeptical over the stocks. i think the fed talk has led to a lot of people missing this rally. is there anything fundamentally that says this market is too expensive. >> a couple things. retail is buying in at the worst time. finally main street says i've missed the whole thing. okay, now i'm in. at probably the worst possible time. also, when you talk about smart money, insider selling has accelerated dramatically recently. and i think that's important. when you have insiders. when you have executives of these companies that are trading at or near all-time highs and they're increasing the pace that they sell, you take that as a warning sign that all-time highs are great, often when they're yelling, we should be selling. charles: i hear you. matt, i take insider trading as a yellow flag
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not necessarily a red flag, per se. i sold and waited too long to get back in. having said that, we don't have cabdrivers playing the market yet. i don't know if we're at that frothy point. to steve's point, more regular people are on the sidelines, wall street thinks that's a red flag. matt: i think it's a red flag and yellow flag as well. i can find a few reasons to sell this market. we can always find that. the retailers aren't in yet. we hit a low last year. the lowest retail investors we've seen in many, many years. they'll start to come back in. they have 12 to 18 months to go in many pin an opinion the cabdrivers are talking about. the charts look good. the fundamentals look good. don't fight the market right now. charles: you said the fundamentals looked good? >> people are looking at the fundamentals. we're seeing people report their forward earnings. and i think that is what is freaking people out
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on the smart money side. wall street is though concerned with their fundamentals. they want to know how these companies are doing. charles: yeah, the earnings have come down like a rocket. >> they have. and i'm seeing estimate revisions coming down for almost seven months. just last month in february, almost every single sector saw more downward revisions of estimates than upward. even health care and tech, even they're coming in a little bit. matt: but they beat that and do better anyway. charles: that's the game. >> that's the trend. it starts to show in the stock prices. matt: it's not showing. we're hitting highs. >> it's starting to push the envelope. matt: you've said that for months. >> interest rates will go higher. >> the appearance -- it could be years until we get there. that's the point investors need to know. it's not going to happen tomorrow. and janet yellen, she said, okay, maybe it could happen in june. >> it doesn't mean it's a sell signal. charles: she's saying that some people do think --
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>> listen, if we mark time for the next 18 months, you can make money. charles: let's leave it there. another reason some people are worried is because the dollar. it's getting stronger and stronger. a lot of people on wall street hate it. the question is, should main street love it we'll talk about it next. already a heated debate. we'll be back in three minutes to make you money. ♪
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charles: all right, have to blow the whistle here. open up another page from payne's investment playbook. now, it's always an interesting tidbit when we see just how much it costs to make our currency. now amazingly a dollar of nickels cost a 1.88. a buck 83. as expensive as that sounds, the real hit could be coming from the surging dollar. at 11-year highs.
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look at that bad boy take off. now, by the way, back here, i went to paris. walked in louboutin. walked out with four or five bags worth of stuff. in his letter to investors, warren buffett warned about the damages of the high dollar. coke, express, wells fargo, wall street is still betting big time. look at all the big investments on the dollar. many like the fed's richard fisher actually says the strong dollar is great for the economy. the dollar was a big story. the euro is at an 11-year low against the dollar. absolutely amazing. you write about king dollar all the time. pro, con. what are you feeling? >> like anything, there's a balance here. the dollar has been climbing since june. >> eleven-year high, is that a balance? >> we have to go a long way to get back to where we were in the '90s and
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even further to get back to where we were in the '80s. estimates were coming down, a lot were the dollar. cost of goods go down, that's good. materials go down, that's good to the bottom line. it also keeps a lid on oil. oil is priced in dollars. that will benefit the consumer. there are pros. charles: i want to ask you, what do you think with the dollar, has it gone too far too fast? >> it's gone too far too fast. ultimately strong countries have strong currencies. long-term, it's a good thing the united states dollar is rallying this way. for the more near term, this is bad. the reason the dollar is soaring is because us equities have soared relative to the rest of the world. the last year, we absolutely crushed europe. crushed emerging markets. all four bricks, brazil, russia, india, china, all gapped down today very hard in otherwise
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pretty quiet sessions. they were bricks to your foot if you owned them. emerging markets in my view are falling apart. all that benefits the us dollar. but us companies are export power hours. s&p 500 revenues are about 50% internationally. it's a problem when we bring that money home and convert it into dollars. >> maybe some people aren't bringing that money home. the ibms of the world. ibm has a lot of money. but apple. they're opening up a couple of data centers that maybe could have opened here. but a dollar in taxes and other things. what do you feel? >> at first i thought, strong dollar, strong country. now, when you reflect back on earnings, and you say, 3m and united technologies or ibm or general electric, they say, oh, in 2016 we'll do 1.75 a share. that's based on the eurodollar being 1.20 for the euro.
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that means the general electric will be killed. now we hear rumblings that the ceo -- charles: but they haven't done anything in 20 years. that's their excuse. >> the question is, can we find an equilibrium? is that possible. charles: that's the question i'm asking. >> that's the question. can we do that? can we import and be just as successful? this is why warren buffett doesn't like us to have a strong dollar obviously. >> warren buffett stocks have a lot bigger problem than a strong dollar. matt: wells fargo should be fine. a lot of manufacturers, almost every district said they saw exports fall. related to the us dollar. charles: it was an unmitigated disaster that last number. they love harleys in china. whirlpools in south america. it hurts our multinationals. i guess the question here is, do we care more
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about wall street benefiting or main street benefiting from this? let hitha get in. >> i want to say, we should care more about main street because that's essentially what is going to buy that product, generate sales. but on the flip side, wall street is -- you know, wall street is clearly caring about this more. i mean, even on the retailer side. you know i cover the retailers. i look at this all the time. all these retailers to import this stuff out, they'll see this affect the bottom line. matt: the bank is paying, the ecb knocking everything down. charles: in india they cut rates -- >> part of the market. they come in, has to go into stocks. >> charles, ultimately, it's a left-handed compliment. the world has no choice, but to send money to the united states. i believe that's true today and it will be true for decades to come. we are the emerging market. that's a good thing long-term, but near-term, it can be a problem. charles: around the world,
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they're not feeling bad that we're such victims of our own success. let's say you love a sector. now, how do you pick the best stocks? forget about traditional metrics. forget about those absolute number. you have to go to the business friends. i'll teach you peer to peer analysis. get your pen and paper ready. it's next. ♪
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♪ charles: all right. so i get asked all the time. how do you pick a stock amongst a group of names that all look similar? you compare those names and compare them based on business trends more so than absolute value. let's take american
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eagle outfitters and abercrombie & fitch two names that used to trade in tandem. you can see how they went separate ways. american eagle had lower operating margins. 4.7% versus abercrombie & fitch's number, 8.2%. why is american eagle taking off? they both have revenues of 1.1 billion. but abercrombie & fitch's revenues were down 15%. american eagle's were flat. operating margins 4.7%. up from 3.3%. 8.2% is down from 8.5%. you understand? you see where the trends are. of course, then we talk about same store sales. flat for american eagle. doesn't sound good. much better than a year ago when they were down. abercrombie & fitch, not had a positive same store sales number since 2011. now, the first buy signal between these two
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stocks came last august. late in august. this is an interesting thing. first, american eagle, reported their numbers august 20th. right here. look at this bad boy. took off like a rocket. a week later, abercrombie & fitch laid another egg even though they were flying high. stock has been going down and virtually has not stopped at all. so you have it from a technical point of view and a fundamental point of view. finally on august 20th, the interim ceo at american eagle said what wall street wanted to hear. although the results were slightly ahead of our expectations, they do not reflect our potential. the stock went up. that's what people wanted to hear. you use if you then analysis. what do you think? >> what's interesting about these stocks. i love that you point to same store sales. i look at channel checking. and i look at promotions and prices. even though those stores are selling jeans and sweaters. look at the prices which have an impact on sales,
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american eagle outfitters were selling the jeans for $34 versus abercrombie's $80. >> you've gone deeper. the average person watching the show can learn after a couple of seasons of watching this show. >> it's the trends. american eagle got it. and abercrombie just didn't get it. i can't think of anything more dangerous than investing in a teen retail stock. >> very volatile. charles: matt obtained over the pe ratio, price of sales. i chuckled. the guy was offended. those don't always tell you everything. it can't tell you the trends we pointed out there. hillary, last word. >> all different metrics for all different sectors. when it comes to retail, it's about merging off -- charles: i use the same kind of -- when hewlett-packard was losing to del --
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>> they looked great at the bottom. charles: two companies that you you want to buy, do a pee peer o peer review. start practicing that. move over, student loans. auto loans on the verge of cracking $1 trillion and more and more of it pure junk. what does that mean for the industry? what does it mean for the economy, and what does it mean one day for your wallet even if you didn't buy one of those cars? ♪ at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like mute buttons equal danger. ...that sound good? not being on this phone call sounds good. it's not muted. was that you jason? it was geoffrey! it was jason.
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at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping. g1 yesterday they released all of the auto sales numbers. for the most part they were
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largely greeted with beyond. but i guarantee you that there was not a lot of news when benjamin netanyahu gave the speech of a lifetime. those sales were off the tape. take a look at the estimates and the actual numbers. even with a harsh winter, it does not explain all of that. consumer credit data on friday released probably showing auto loans are either right there or maybe even north of $1 trillion and that is going to make a lot of people nervous. you will see headlines and there are reasons for that. the biggest return his quality of these loans. 27% of these loans come in the balance were subprime and that is a red flag. making the issue even more unnerving. wells fargo, last year they gave out 30 billion all the loans and they will probably be capping them and already there are reports of rejection letters. and finally the biggest winner in the market yesterday by far,
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the number one percentage gain. have you ever heard of this company? they were spun off from aig and their name is spring leaf. this is a juggernaut, more than 2000 brands in 43 states. a subprime juggernaut. and if that doesn't spook you, what does? what about you, steve? what you make it? subprime and juggernaut in the same sentence is unnerving. >> yes, i think if anything you are being a little bit kind about the auto sales numbers. by the way, speaking of songs, blame it on the rain was a terrible song by milli vanilli. lehman on the weather is a terrible excuse for these auto members. last winter was the worst winter of my adult lifetime in chicago. so blame it on the weather is not a valid excuse.
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i think there's something bigger going on and there's something going to a part of this. not only do they but also extending the duration of all the growth, it is now six and seven years. seven years is an eternity when you're talking about an auto loan and your card appreciate so much over the course of seven years. i think that we do have a ripple effect. but we do have a similar kind of bubble on a smaller scale within autos. >> people are loath to lose their car and people will live in their car. and by the way, people have figured out a great deal. >> i'm going to start a playlist or for going to keep this going. [laughter]
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>> sumac i'm a child of the 80s. >> the subprime auto loan can be the thing that we had except you're not talking about as much of money. but i think that that's a bad idea because cars today are not made as good as they were in the past. >> so david, what do you think? >> i am guilty. i confess. >> you're one of the financial masterminds of the world. >> you know, i'm probably going to keep it three or four or five years and all i care about is the payment. that is why i did it. >> the average american is part of this. >> you can talk about this and total debt, $12 trillion of consumer debt, only 900 million.
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>> 900 million right now. >> here is the point. >> i think that there's an important part of it, there's a lot of hoopla recently by nasa, if you own for, you're still down 40%, 15 years later and i submit to you looking at the bigger picture that americans are falling out of love with the automobile. total miles driven has dropped dramatically and card sharing, ridesharing is here to stay and it is a structural change and i don't think it's coming back. >> there is no doubt about that, it's part and parcel of the white picket fence and a big house in the suburbs. but having said that, these loans are worrisome. when we hear trillion dollars, which the government is facilitating in the country, we
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have a bubble brewing. >> yes, we have a bubble brewing, but there is a subprime bubble and the terms of this, cars are being repossessed. i just spoke about a loss last week and the company is doing really well because people's cars are being picked up. >> its lowest ever for the fourth quarter. >> so we would be afraid or worried? >> when you buy a car coming to know what's going to depreciate. >> this is one of the largest financial institutions out there, walking away from revenue because they think that the credit quality is part of us. >> we saw that. is that an indictment against
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citi? >> i am concerned because the process is that they're going to raise more capital as they get rid of all of these things that they don't run, but that is a deal. >> i have to admit, i don't like the action, 16%, just wanted to raise that. >> i have a stock that i absolutely love, trak. it's a data that is levied on the computer. whether it's about buying process or loans, all of this information is part of this. >> you know, i still like gm. and even though they miss on the sales come and they did better, but i'm kind of queasy about that.
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>> they also eat the edmonds number gm executing everybody except fiat. >> they are making $2700 per vehicle versus afford, which is 994, leading the pack in terms of revenue, they are making a 14.3% uptick on that. >> we talked about this yesterday. >> do you like anything and is? >> yes, i do. i like autozone. they are too dependent on emerging markets. but autozone is a perfect sort of auto austerity and as you mentioned, the duration, the length of cars on the road is ever increasing and autozone is a way to capitalize on that. but i still think that there's more to come.
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>> the autozone scares me. okay, guys, let's leave it there. check out the new hit show strange inheritance with jamie colby. tonight jimmy's going to talk with a woman who inherited her dad's collection of civil war artifacts. it is a decrepit 130-foot thermometer. and next, a lucrative restaurant. it's a great show airing monday through friday and thursday nights at 6:00 p.m. i hear on the fox business network. in the 320-dollar care to stop shoplifting. enhancing the retail industry that maybe we can get congress to take it as well.
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save on turning the table and making them pay to avoid jail. that can shoplifting be cured? and if they can come onln y $30n we will be right back. is computing to empower cancer researchers. it used to take two weeks to sequence and analyze a genome; with the microsoft cloud we can analyze 100 per day. whatever i can do to help compute a cure for cancer, that's what i'd like to do. who would have thought masterthree cheese lasagna would go with chocolate cake and ceviche? the same guy who thought that small caps and bond funds would go with a merging markets. it's a masterpiece. thanks. clearly you are type e. you made it phil. welcome home. now what's our strategy with the fondue?
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diversifying your portfolio? e*trade gives you the tools and resources to get it right. are you type e*? >> now it is time for upon further review and. >> apparently they have convinced people that they have found a cure for shoplifting. otherwise it used to be called the five finger discount. it was called a corrective education company allowing a suspect to pay $320 and 90 would take an online course you would avoid getting arrested. the store we get $40 as a referral payment, but here's the thing. you have places like bloomingdale's and all whole foods, and every sign that. so this seems to be the now >> jonathan gruber, the father
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of obamacare came from harvard and that is not working out for us so well. unfortunately politicians are finding ways press. it. >> it's like anything that you are addicted to. many times they're only caught one out of 48 times. >> i wrote a book about this call black-market billions. when i looked at this, shoplifting is a 30 billion dollar hits retailers and basically having this program for all, the small people that kind of go in and shoplifted couple of things here and there, sometimes it can be a lot more. >> to your point, most of this is out the back door and front door. so you have to make them take it. >> you have these people, these organized retail crime places
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and that is what i want to focus on is that. >> it also takes away the time that the security has to deal with this. give them a second chance, let them pay the money. >> the store gets $40 and the company gets the rest. some are actually saying that it's a shakedown, that you're shaking down these shoplifters. >> it is a shakedown. i would like to know, hillary clinton perhaps she can have a role in this. >> would you pay it forward? >> you know, it really all depends. this just does make sense, which refers to the teenager that it's
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going to grow out of this phase, but when you're talking about those that are shoplifting to feed themselves and their family you know, i know it is a shakedown of them. >> you have been suspiciously quiet. >> i stole a pack of cards when i was a kid. to the numbers that she's talking about, i don't think we can do any good at all. >> that is a different kind of organized crime, but to your point whether it's an addiction or something else, to everyone else's point, let's hope that they may congress and presidential candidates take this course as well. coming up we have a lighting round of answers because your questions keep coming in and by the way, keep them coming you can't predict the market.
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to help you keep rolling with confidence. go long™. ♪ charles: time to answer questions on making money in the market. if you're curious about a stock or industry or strategy. this is the place to come. love the show, could you discuss credentials. there could be a lot of value there even were one race goes out. yes they are beaten down, but i think that there are legitimate concerns about business models. both are starting to balance a little bit. recently improving and they recently got a couple of downgrades and i don't like this
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one. >> i don't like either of them and i think you bring up a good point. the charts are just abysmal, these stocks are doing nothing. >> in history when interest rates go up, insurance goes up almost exactly linear with them. >> here we go betting on the fed again. [laughter] >> i think that we have taken it almost as a given that interest rates are going up. who says they have to go up over the next year or so? i think that there's global deflation, given that, i think that there are better places to look. >> i think that the deal closes on this for 52.50. there's a lot a lot of pressure coming down and this one doesn't look like it's getting a higher
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bid. take your profit and go. >> you know, the risk is that i've had a couple of them fall apart. the reward is that someone comes in but then they come out. charles: one of my subscribers said thinking of buying this for 4184, $4180. and i have to tell you something. i have to say that it seems like the company turning the corner with respect to try to make money or make the street believe that they are trying to make money. in 2014 there was a message and the bottom line is that you have to start making money. so i would not touch them. what about you? >> do not try to go against the
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trend. >> they finally did pay a price for not making earnings are bringing this to the bottom line, but i think that these are getting the message. >> i have been there and done that with the person, it's always been a loser for me, i've been wrong every time. >> let's leave it right there. if you guys think this was a dull session, think again. maybe more than just a fairy tale and maybe you don't want to hear this, but maybe obama on the first-round.
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you're down with crestor. yes! when diet and exercise aren't enough, adding crestor lowers bad cholesterol up to 55%. crestor is not for people with liver disease, or women who are nursing, pregnant, or may become pregnant. tell your doctor all medicines you take. call your doctor if you have muscle pain or weakness, feel unusually tired, have loss of appetite, upper belly pain, dark urine, or yellowing of skin or eyes. these could be signs of serious side effects. i'm down with crestor! make your move. ask your doctor about crestor.
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. charles: time for your marching
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ordering. the moment of truth is coming. let's take a look what's going to move the markets for the remainder of the week. a few compelling things happened, intra-day reversals that caught my eye. first. crude oil, ten million barrels, twice the consensus. here's the thing. right now, 444 million barrels at 80-year high, after going down, look at the strong close for crude oil, and then alibaba. you know the hot ipo? you tweet me about it all the time. getting hammered and hammered and hammered. on the cusp of a massive completely breaking down, reverse, it went significantly higher, a classic case of bottom fishing or could be company specific. we're going to talk about this also and are you willing to buy this dip. and the supreme court of the united states began hearing against obamacare subsidies. if the market's any indication, round one goes to president obama using the hospital stocks
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as a proxy. life point, universal, hca, up huge. that means right now the first day maybe, just maybe, it looks like the supreme court maybe leaning toward president obama. though it is very, very early on all of this stuff. really, i love when beneath the surface it's all kinds of great things that happen. scottie, you know people in the hospital industry. what are they telling you about this? >> the private hospital stocks like life point and hca, they are not going to let billions of dollars of subsidized profits go without a fight. you saw the market react to justice kennedy's comments and they liked it. that's bad for those of us who want to see repeal of obamacare. charles: most people watching this thing, almost everyone is negligently impacted. no one told us we'd pay 400% premium for people who are supposedly poor! that's the joke! oil, settled at a two-week
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high. and are we seeing a bottoming process here, it felt like it after today. >> i think you have a great point. there's a tradable bottom in crude oil. an astounding inventory number, so astounding in oklahoma and north dakota, oil companies are going to try to get individuals to lease swimming pools to store oil in them. that's how much oil we have in the system right now. and we had crude oil soar almost 3% today. that tells me selling is excessive, exhaustive in itself, and both oil outright and the stocks are buyable here. charles: matt, what do you make of it? >> i call the bottom about a month ago, we are not going to retest the bottom. charles: much better today. what do you think about oil? >> i think we're probably going hit a bottom soon. charles: you don't think this is the bottom? 44? 43? >> no, i think we're going to go down. >> for the first time in a half century oil is trading as a free floating commodity.
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i don't think we know. charles: alibaba, you told people you love, it they're getting crushed. real quick, hold it? >> hold it, stay with it. don't worry about the piracy. charles: she's got a heck of a track record. so does lou dobbs. he's next.. lou: good evening, everybody. i'm lou dobbs. israeli prime minister netanyahu's speech to congress reminded many americans of our heritage of plain spoken language. the new defense secretary ashton carter is clearly a throwback to those straightforward leaders who spoke straightforwardly, spoke directly, spoke plainly. two weeks into the job, carter admitted he thinks it was a mistake to put a three-year deadline on the president's request seeking authorization to use military force against the islamic state, carter said the president's decision in his judgment was based not on the


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